State of the O’s Rotation – Nov. 19th

The Orioles’ Opening Day rotation likely won’t be set until the week before the season starts.  We’ll check in regularly to see what their options look like.  Also, after going through their 40-man roster, I’ve come the conclusion that the O’s have extraordinary depth in the longman/emergency starter position.

IN

Jeremy Guthrie (RHP) – The only sure bet.

LIKELY

Daniel Cabrera (RHP) – If he’s with the club, he’ll be in the rotation.

POSSIBLE

Garrett Olson (LHP) – Olson is still young, he only turned 25 a month ago.  Last year he put up a brutal line in 132 innings, but some regression to the mean should be expected, at the least.  His walk rate (like pretty much everyone wearing an O’s jersey) spiked last year, so that obviously has to improve for Olson to find success.  But Olson is running out of time to make his mark on the organization.

Radhames Liz (RHP) – More or less the same story as Olson, except he’s always walked people and his K rate took a dramatic hit.

Troy Patton (LHP) – He’s supposed to be healthy, and if he impresses in Spring Training, there’s going to be space for him.  My guess is that the team will put him in the minors to start the season and if he does well, he’ll be the first man up.  A decently-regarded prospect before he got hurt, there’s every reason to think he can at least be on the level of Olson or Liz.

Brad Hennessey (RHP) – The recent minor league free agent pickup, I think he’d be serviceable 4th or 5th starter for this team.  He does too, that’s why he signed here.

Hayden Penn (RHP) – We all know Mr. Unlucky will slip in the shower or get into a freak lawnmower accident. I’d like to see him get a shot, but it has been some time since he’s had a full and effective year.

UNLIKELY

Chris Waters (LHP) – Hey, I’d be happy to root for him.  I just think he’s destined for the bullpen, as the O’s look for more promising starters.

Brian Burres (LHP) – You think he and Bass can’t wait until Brad Bergesen arrives?  Killer B’s, baby!  Hopefully the O’s won’t need Burres as anything more than a spot starter.

Brian Bass (RHP) – The Twins had moved him to the pen last year, and it seems likely that’s his destiny.

LONGSHOTS

Matt Albers (RHP) – I could see it happening, and he’d probably be a better starter than Waters, but I think his place is the bullpen.

Danys Baez (RHP) – He says he’d like to try starting, and he did start 26 games for Cleveland in 2002, putting up a 4.41 ERA on the season.  Of course, in 2007 he was overpriced and crappy, and last year he was overpriced and hurt.  You know, there’s probably no harm in giving him some starts in Spring Training to see what happens.  I’d be surprised if he’s starting for the organization anywhere other than Norfolk, though.

Dennis Sarfate (RHP) – Remember when started four games last year?  That was ugly.  In those starts, he never made it through five innings, and gave up at least four runs and three walks.  Of course it is a small sample size and all, but here’s hoping that doesn’t happen again.

Lance Cormier (RHP) – He did start a game last season, but it seems unlikely he’d start a game this one.

Jim/James Johnson (RHP) – He started in the minors, it is true, but he found success in the bullpen.  Though I love the season he posted, i think the O’s would do well to include him on a trade this offseason.  Seems like a prime sell-high candidate.

Your Newest Orioles: Brad Hennessey and Donnie Murphy

The O’s signed Brad Hennessey and Donnie Murphy to minor league contracts, and they’ll each get the coveted invitation to Spring Training.  One of the benefits of having roster holes is that it makes the team attractive to players looking for shots at a major league roster.  Granted, most of these players are pretty fringy, but it makes picking off the scrap heap that much easier.

I like the Hennessey signing.  Do I think he’ll stick in the rotation?  Nope.  Not unless he can bring down his walk rate.  And striking out some more guys couldn’t hurt.  His frightful numbers from last year will undoubtedly regress to the mean, especially noting his high BABIP (.372 in 40 innings in the bigs).  It is worth noting that is that his GB/FB ratio took a rather dramatic nosedive last year.  And he’ll only be 29 next season.  The best case scenario is that Kranitz finds something in Hennessey’s delivery, the pitcher returns to “innings eater” status, and MacPhail packages him for prospects at the trade deadline.  Most likely he bounces around the rotation, the bullpen, and AAA, but he’s cheap enough that stashing him away seems like a pretty sound idea.  Also, he was a first round draft pick by the Giants, so he has something about which he can talk to Lou Montanez.

As for Donnie Murphy, well, in his time in the majors, he’s played like a slightly younger version of Fahey who’s more inclined to play the infield.  Murphy’s shown a little pop in the minors, but could stand to walk a little more often.  Seems like he’ll provide organizational depth at AAA, at the ready for an emergency callup.

What’s Wrong With Second?

There’s an important factor to keep in mind when thinking about Type A free agents like Mark Teixeira or Orlando Cabrera.  If the O’s draft one, they’ll lose their 2nd round pick.  “But Jared,” you might say.  “What’s the big deal?  Fifty players will probably be off the board at that point.”  Well, sure, but that’s nothing to sneeze at.  You might remember the player the O’s drafted in the 2nd round of the 1978 draft.  Played on the left side of the infield for a couple decades?  More recently, Nolan Reimold and the toolsy Xavier Avery were 2nd round picks.  Rising stars such as Reid Brigniac, Yovanni Gallardo, Hunter Pence, Dustin Pedroia, Chase Headley, Kevin Slowey, Trevor Cahill, and a certain Chris Tillman were all second rounders in recent drafts.

Of course, many more draft picks bust than hit it big.  And even though the O’s seem to be doing a better job scouting, there’s no guarantee any pick will be a success.

That said, the hope is that this year is the first (or maybe second) where the O’s acknowledge from the start that they aren’t winning anything this year.  No one would be happier than I am if they did, but the way to build a winning ballclub is to properly assess when the team can be competitive.  So the question becomes: In 2010, are the O’s going to regret getting that Type A player when they could have had a shot at a premium prospect?  We’ll look into the numbers more closely, but my guess is that with Orlando Cabrera, that’s a pretty easy call.  There are placeholder glovemen that can be had much more cheaply.  Teixeira, on the other hand, will likely still be mashing three years from now, so the answer isn’t as obvious.

O’s Links

BP’s AL East Hot Stove Preview – A decent summary of where the O’s stand at the moment.  Aging players in the last year of their contract, a bunch of guys who need to be traded, and many holes to fill.

Zrebiec’s ten free agents for the O’s to consider – We’ll get to some of these players, but as his list shows, the O’s aren’t going to build a winning team through free agency.

FanGraphs review of the minors – Nothing terribly new, but they show some love for Olson and Erbe

On the Catwalk

So the O’s debuted their new uniforms today in grand fashion, or at least in a manner which would make any 90s mall tour idol jealous.  I was able to catch the broadcast and I think it underscores how far the climb the respectability still is for the organization.  Fine, maybe using a mall as a backdrop highlights the team’s blue collar roots and its attempt to connect with the fans.  But not blocking off the area, so random mall shoppers frequently entered shots, gawking bewilderingly?  That’s bush league.  Sure, it was cute to have O’s players model the new uniforms by bursting through a curtain and coming down an escalator, tossing off their jackets to the adoring crowd.  But the players clearly had little idea what they were supposed to do once they reached the stage.

I’m not suggesting the event should have been a highly choreographed affair.  But the lack of professionalism reflects poorly on the organization, I thought.  The team clearly isn’t selling itself.  And no one is going to take the O’s seriously if they can’t do so themselves.

The uniforms mark Angelos’ long-overdue surrender of the DC region.  I can’t believe how badly Angelos bungled things when the Nats arrived, in terms of the turf war for fans, but that deserves many posts of its own.  With attendance slipping, the organization clearly needed to solidify its base, and adding “Baltimore” and the Maryland flag to the team’s away jerseys is a fine first start.  As a side note, the Maryland flag is really quite a good state flag, and I’d love to see the team incorporate it more.

The team isn’t necessarily out of the contest for fans from the DC suburbs of Maryland.  Especially with the Nats looking to be terrible for the foreseeable future.  Of course, a vital step would be the O’s to at least be respectable.  But more importantly, the team needs to get back in the good graces of its true home.  It isn’t going to happen without a change in organizational culture.  Personally, I’d like to believe that change started the day Wieters was drafted.  As the O’s ragtag jersey unveiling proves, however, there’s still a long way to go.

O’s Links

The Dugout – I love a good Luis Matos joke as much as the next guy.

Fangraphs – FanGraphs review of the O’s season.  I’m normally a big fan of FanGraphs, but the piece isn’t particularly informative, and I do have a rule that any article misspelling “Wieters” is not to be trusted.

Tuesday Nats Links

1.  A few under-the-radar roster moves, courtesy of MLB Hot Stove Blog:

The Nationals selected the contracts of outfielder Leonard Davis, right-hander Luis Atilano and shortstop Ian Desmond on Monday.The moves mean that those three players are safe from the Rule 5 Draft, which is on Dec. 11 in Las Vegas.
Desmond was relatively highly-touted when drafted in 2005, but he has failed to live up to any of the hype.  Atilano, a former Braves first-rounder (picked up in a swap for Daryle Ward), profiles down the road as a back-end starter.  Davis was the 2008 Nats Minor League POY, but is 24 and a marginal OF prospect.  The Nats have plenty of room on the 40-man roster, especially after removing Dmitri Young, to protect these three, so this is a pretty logical move.

2.  Nationals will hold a press conference at 3:30 to announce the Willingham/Olsen trade

3.  Bill Ladson takes a few questions in the Nats Mailbag

• Ladson expresses faith in Dukes and Milledge reaching their full potential.  The signs are there, but maybe some lineup protection this offseason would help them along.
• Perhaps as a joke, someone asked about Carl Pavano.  Let’s not even go there.
• Ladson is unwilling to commit to the Nats taking Strasburg.  Due diligence is required, but the Nationals need to show a willingness to meet his price tag to show that they are committed to building the team.
• Finally, “Efren M.” from DC suggests that the Nats need to be more creative and aggressive with runners on base.  While small-ball may rule the National League, the Nationals clearly need to figure out how to add a power bat, NOT how to bunt more runners over and sacrifice more outs.

Maybe a Phone Call Would Be Nice

33 year-old Japanese pitcher Koji Uehara is coming stateside, and MLB Trade Rumors has linked him to the O’s.  Or, to be more specific, NPB Tracker has.  Here’s NPB Tracker’s profile of Uehara from earlier in the year.  Uehara has been a starter most of his career, but has been a closer the past two years.  And it looks like he’s put up some impressive K/BB numbers.  To look at a very small sample size, he led the inaugural WBC with sixteen strikeouts in seventeen innings, allowing three earned runs on two homers.  He led the Japanese team over China in the first round, held the U.S. team to one run in five innings, and pitched seven shutout innings against Korea to send Japan to the title game.

As far as I can recall, Koji Uehara is the first meaningful Japanese player linked to the O’s since the Hideki Matsui debacle.  But I’m absolutely thrilled to hear the team being associated with a Japanese player, and I’m certainly hoping the rumor is true.  Of course, normally a 33 year-old pitcher with homer issues whose bounced around between the rotation and bullpen is the exact opposite of who I think the O’s should be targeting.  But even counting the unfortunate Aruban experiments, the O’s have had very few forays into the international arena, and almost no successes.  Establishing themselves as a viable contender for top Japanese talent is almost a must to get competitive again.  Plus, again, the team has plenty of space in the rotation to see if he’ll stick.

O’s Links of the Day

BP Interview with Rick Kranitz (subscription required):

DL: It sounds like you differ from your predecessor, Leo Mazzone, in that he had a specific philosophy he wanted his pitchers to adhere to, while you’re more adaptable in your approach. Is that accurate?

RK: Well, I think that there are always absolutes. You know, in certain counts you have to make pitches; I think that every pitcher, number one, has a place where they can command their fastball the best. Now, wherever that place is, in certain counts they have to go there to stay ahead in counts. You can’t ask a guy to do something he can’t do. A lot of what Leo taught, which was to command the ball down and away, absolutely. I mean, you have to do that to be a successful major league pitcher; there’s no question about it. A lot of guys can’t do that in today’s age, so you obviously try to work on that, while still letting them pitch to their strengths and work with what they do best. Obviously, if you can never get the ball down and away when you need to in a hitter’s count, like 2-0, 2-1, or 3-1, you’re in trouble.

The interview isn’t really all that interesting to be honest.  But Kranitz is saying the right things, I think, and there’s a Harold Baines reference in there.  Plus, it’d be silly to put last year on Kranitz, regardless of how badly the pitching tanked.

Spencer Fordin mailbag:

Fordin doesn’t always give the most satisfactory of answers, in my book.  But he definitely is spot on in acknowledging the O’s 2009 rotation is Guthrie and pray for rain, rain, rain, and 2010.  I look forward to harping on this point, but the O’s have to be willing to experiment this year.  Run through as many scrap heap pitchers and see who sticks.  Is Chris Waters really going to be starting on a playoff team?

From Joe Sheehan’s article:

Matt Wieters stood out from the crowd in the league, playing Kelly Leak to Surprise’s Bad News Bears. This isn’t that stretched a metaphor; Surprise is terrible, easily the worst team in the league despite Wieters, Brian Matusz and, for a few games anyway, Justin Smoak. For Wieters, playing for the Rafters might provide good experience for playing for the Orioles over the next couple of seasons. He showed every tool but speed in the two games I saw him, even blocking the plate to turn a run into an out. I can see many arguments for having him open next season at Triple-A, but there’s no question that he’s not only the best catcher in the Orioles system, but one of the best players as well. I don’t know where his career will go—the track record of 6’5″ catchers is pretty unpleasant—but in the short term, he’s the best prospect in baseball.

I’m a sucker for each and every article about Wieters.

Quick Hits on the Olsen/Willingham Deal

Strangely, I mostly agree with Jared regarding the Olsen/Willingham deal.  While they are clearly somewhat damaged goods (Willingham missed 50 games due to injury last year, and Olsen has had some arm troubles), they both are healthy at the moment, and the Nationals didn’t give up very much.

I may be slightly more bullish on the Nationals farm system, but they didn’t give up any major pieces here.  Bonifacio was a long-time Bowden target, which I for one found confusing.  He does provide some speed and defense for the Marlins, and he is under control for little money.

PJ Dean had some good numbers for the Vermont Lake Monsters as a starter in ’08, with a 1.57 ERA in 64 IP.  His K/BB was good, but he is in need of a lot more seasoning in the minors.  Jake Smolinski is a 2B prospect with little speed and power, but might project as a utility-man down the line.  While these two could become major league contributors, they were not top prospects, even for the Nationals system.

The big test will be whether Olsen and Willingham can stay healthy and contribute for the Nationals.  Arbitration will cost the Nationals for both players, but they should be had for reasonable amounts.   Position-wise, look for Willingham to slot into a corner OF spot, maybe also playing some time at first.  Let’s just hope it keeps Dmitri Young off the field.

This is a deal that will definitely take at least a year to evaluate in full, but I’d say this this deal looks like a win for Bowden.  Then again, I was equally bullish on Bowden’s deal for Felipe Lopez, Ryan Wagner, and Austin Kearns.